3 Black Swan Events to Crash Bitcoin Before the Next Bull Run

September 11, 2023

Welcome to another Crypto Weekly Digest brought to you by VirtualBacon.

Bitcoin's resurgence to the $30k mark post the bear market bottom signals bullish sentiment. Many even predict a return to the $40k-$50k range. But before we get swept away by the optimism, there are looming concerns.

This week, we'll delve deep into three major events that Bitcoin will want to sidestep. Any misstep with these potential market shakers could be detrimental, threatening to collapse Bitcoin’s value. As always, wrapping up, we'll provide a sharp overview of the current market sentiment, highlighting both the standout and underperforming coins of the week and a concise analysis of key cryptocurrencies and the forces shaping their trajectories.

Black Swan #1: Binance Collapse

Binance is at a crucial crossroads. Amid allegations of regulatory non-compliance, Binance faces formidable challenges from the SEC. Central to these allegations are claims of covertly allowing high-value US customers to trade, and the Binance US platform allegedly functioning as a facade to bypass regulations.


More concerning, the SEC's case isn't limited to the types of crypto Binance trades but fundamentally its adherence to securities laws.

Recent developments have seen increasing pressure from Operation Choke Point 2.0, a strategic US government initiative aiming to distance crypto platforms from the US banking system. This move intends to shift the crypto landscape in favor of Wall Street.


Though the prospect of Binance's collapse could spell disaster, given its mammoth market share, there's a silver lining. Binance's consistent ability to display their full proof of reserves, cater to withdrawal demands, and maintain a robust treasury even under duress is commendable.


Nevertheless, the decline in their market dominance from 62% to 38% over the year suggests the strain regulatory pressures can impose.

Black Swan #2: Tether USDT Depeg

Tether, the reigning champion of stablecoins with an $82 billion market cap, has lately navigated tumultuous waters.

Concerns have magnified regarding its backing claims and discord with major crypto entities, especially amid increased regulatory focus. The US's Operation Choke Point 2.0 has added complications, making it challenging for Tether to handle dollar redemptions.

There are evident warning signs: prominent exchanges are shifting to other stablecoins.


Tether's price dipped below the critical 0.99 mark, signaling a potential depeg. The proposed "Clarity for Payment Stable Coins Act" from the US House, specifically targeting Tether, poses another hurdle.


Interestingly, Tether's market cap surged by $18.5 billion, while USDC's declined by a similar margin, hinting at users seeking a safer haven. As the market moves forward, Tether's role and stability will be pivotal to the crypto industry's health.

Black Swan #3: BlackRock ETF Manipulations

The recent speculation revolves around BlackRock's spot ETF for Bitcoin. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with $9 trillion AUM, has touted Bitcoin as digital gold, even as the cryptocurrency's value struggles.


However, there's reason to believe that BlackRock's real intentions might be more self-serving. Despite the public optimism, Bitcoin still failed to breach the 30k resistance. Many question BlackRock's true intentions, speculating that they aim to enter at a lower price by swaying the market's sentiment. Their ETF application even contains a secretive clause regarding potential Bitcoin hard forks.


This has led to fears that BlackRock could utilize its dominant position to influence Bitcoin's trajectory, especially if it pursues a hard fork strategy. With BlackRock's substantial influence over major Bitcoin mining companies, their potential to sway the future of Bitcoin is non-trivial.

Investors and enthusiasts should watch closely, recognizing that BlackRock's actions may not always align with the broader interests of the Bitcoin community.

Best Performing Coins of The Week

Worst Performing Coins of The Week

Altcoin Events

Aave ($AAVE)

We turn our attention to Aave, which has seen a 3% rise over the past week.

This moderate uptick in Aave's value has been fueled by the circulating news that the DeFi giant is contemplating a strategic base shift for its Version 3 (V3) to the Base platform. This decision, highly influenced by Curve's recent security breach, signifies Aave's proactive stance in bolstering security to protect user assets.

This week also saw Aave collaborate with Coinbase, among others, for the formation of the Tokenized Asset Coalition. Their mission to bridge DeFi and traditional finance by tokenizing real-world assets signals a potential influx of trillion-dollar investments into DeFi.

Yet, as the DeFi realm buzzes with these developments, the broader crypto community watches with a mix of optimism and skepticism. Aave stands at a crucial crossroads, and many wait to see which direction it will take.


Algorand ($ALGO)

The second coin we will look at is XDC, a coin that saw a 2.08% gain over the past week.

Algo's momentum ties to the Algorand Foundation's recent partnership with Borderless Capital, Arrington Capital, and DWFLabs, investing strategically in Pera Algo Wallet. This collaborative move seeks to amplify the Algorand ecosystem's reach, enriching the self-custodial wallet experience for users.

However, enthusiasts keep a watchful eye. With Pera Algo Wallet achieving over 1 million downloads in 2023 and the Algorand Foundation's continuous support for diverse wallet solutions, the future of Algo seems promising. The community anticipates broader cryptocurrency adoption, waiting eagerly for Algorand's next strides in the blockchain domain.


dYdX ($DYDX)

The final coin we will look at is DYDX, a coin that has experienced a 3.83% drop this week.

The drop is potentially linked to the announcement of the token unlock on Sept. 26, with a significant $13.7 million, or 3.8% of dYdX's circulating supply, being released.

However, market participants are keenly watching. With 2.49 million DYDX tokens allocated to the community treasury and the rest split between liquidity and trading rewards, the move mirrors a similar event in August. DYdX's founder, Antonio Juliano, recently highlighted the potential for crypto ventures outside the U.S., hinting at future international strategies.

As dYdX navigates these unlocks and regulatory landscapes, the community waits, anticipating the platform's next moves in the decentralized finance space.


This week, we delved into the potential pitfalls that could halt Bitcoin's momentum, spotlighting the looming black swan events it must sidestep to prevent a collapse. The fragility of interconnected crypto ecosystems came to the fore as we examined Binance's challenges and how they might ripple through the market. Moreover, our analysis of the week's top gainers and losers offered insights into the forces shaping their trajectories. As always, as we edge closer to 2024, knowledge remains our safeguard against unpredictable market storms.

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